2024-03-29

BTC Supply Shock

  • New Bitcoin ETFs now hold 500,000 BTC, while GBTC outflows slow, Mar 30, 2024
  • Bitcoin to attract $1T from institutions amid ‘raging bull market’ — Bitwise exec, Mar 30, 2024
  • Bitcoin exchanges’ BTC balances have dropped almost $10B in 2024, Mar 30, 2024


Bitcoin exchanges’ BTC balances have dropped almost $10B in 2024

Bitcoin exchange withdrawal trends are clear as “pent up institutional demand” from the spot ETFs combines with the upcoming halving to squeeze the available BTC supply.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that since Jan. 11, exchanges are down over 136,000 BTC.

As of March 28, the exchange info tracked by Glassnode held a combined 2,320,458 BTC — the lowest balance since April 2018.

The trend shows no sign of slowing. Glassnode shows that on March 27 alone, withdrawals totaled more than 22,000 BTC ($1.54 billion) — the third-largest daily tally of 2024.

ETF buying alone already represents a much larger buying force than the “new” BTC unlocked each day by miners.

After the upcoming block subsidy halving event in mid-April, that ratio will increase even more as the BTC supply expands by just 3.125 BTC per newly mined block.

"For the first time, Bitcoin will become harder than gold, with half its supply growth rate. Pent up institutional demand via the ETFs, a programmatic supply squeeze from the Halving and Bitcoin taking the title as the world's hardest asset. There's a lot to look forward to in April."

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-exchanges-btc-balances-dropped-10b-2024


Bitcoin to attract $1T from institutions amid ‘raging bull market’ — Bitwise exec

“keep calm and take the long view.” ~ Bitwise’s Matthew Hougan

... the $12 billion flowing into ETFs since their launch is exciting and is “the most successful ETF launch of all time.” 

... once global wealth managers begin to allocate 1% of their portfolio into Bitcoin, this would mean $1 trillion in inflows into the space.

“*A 1% allocation across the board would mean ~$1 trillion of inflows into the space. Against this, $12 billion is barely a down payment*,” he added.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-1-trillion-bull-market-bitwise-chief


New Bitcoin ETFs now hold 500,000 BTC, while GBTC outflows slow

Nine of the 10 new spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have accumulated over 500,000 BTC since launching in January, with their holdings now accounting for 2.54% of the current circulating supply.

This brings the amount of BTC held by the nine ETFs to a current worth of $35 billion over just 54 trading days.



In total, all United States spot Bitcoin funds, including Grayscale, hold 835,000 BTC, which is almost 4% of the entire supply.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-bitcoin-etfs-hold-500000-btc-gbtc-outflows-slow

2024-03-28

Bullish Bitcoin



  • BlackRock CEO ’very bullish’ on Bitcoin as its ETF crosses $17B, MAR 28, 2024
  • Not just the halving: Why analysts are bullish on Bitcoin in 2024, MAR 28, 2024
  • Bitcoin currently in ‘middle of the bull run’ — Grayscale report, MAR 28, 2024
  • Bitcoin price reclaims $70K as Coinbase BTC supply hits 9-year low, MAR 25, 2024


BlackRock CEO ’very bullish’ on Bitcoin as its ETF crosses $17B

“IBIT is the fastest growing ETF in the history of ETFs. Nothing has gained assets as fast as IBIT in the history of ETFs,” ~ Larry Fink (https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6349827399112)

IBIT has a strong start to trading, tallying $13.5 billion in flows in the first 11 weeks, with an $849 million daily high on March 12. 

IBIT averages a little over $260 million in inflows per trading day.

“We’re creating now a market that has more liquidity, more transparency and I'm pleasantly surprised. I would never have predicted it before we filed it that we were going to see this type of retail demand,”

“I’m very bullish on the long-term viability of Bitcoin,” the BlackRock CEO added.

IBIT currently holds $17.1 billion in Bitcoin, and took only two months to reach the $10 billion mark — a milestone that took the first gold ETF two years to reach.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-bitcoin-etf-fastest-growing-etf-larry-fink


Not just the halving: Why analysts are bullish on Bitcoin in 2024

Next month, the Bitcoin halving will reduce daily BTC production by about 450 BTC from the current average daily amount of 900 BTC.

...the amount of supply cut pales compared to daily fiat flows in and out of crypto exchanges and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

...overall demand for Bitcoin is a “bigger factor than tightening supply.”

“I am bullish for the next two years due to a combination of the halving, expectations for improved global liquidity, and the fact that so many coins have rotated to strong hands in the bear market, and so a relatively minor increase in demand can move the price quite a bit.” ~ investment researcher Lyn Alden

"...every attempt to push down prices has been met with relentless buying," ~ 10x Research CEO and head analyst Markus Thielen

...each time Bitcoin made new price breakouts in February 2013, February 2017, and November 2020, the price could grow s much as 189% after 180 days. Eventually, Bitcoin would top after nine to 11 months following the breakouts historically...

The current Bitcoin rally is the first time Bitcoin has posted a parabolic rise and hit a new all-time high before the block reward halving, eToro crypto analyst Simon Peters emphasized.

...the ongoing cycle is going to be “more institutional,” 

"...it’s important to note that whilst the ETFs have been a major contributor to the rally so far, they are not the only participants in the space. Other entities such as MicroStrategy and Bitcoin whales continue to accumulate too.”

Bitcoin Halving

Programmed to occur once per 210,000 blocks or roughly every four years, Bitcoin halvings are designed to maintain Bitcoin’s deficit and counteract inflation.

Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin has come through three halving events in 2012, 2016 and 2020, cutting its miner incentive from the initial 50 BTC to the current 6.5 BTC. 

The soon-to-come Bitcoin halving in 2024 will further decrease the mining reward from 6.5 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-analysts-bullish-btc-price-2024



Bitcoin currently in ‘middle of the bull run’ — Grayscale report

spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, positive stablecoin inflows and decreasing BTC balance on exchanges.

In addition to an increase in intent to buy, evidenced by increased stablecoin supply, a lack of intent to sell supported by decreasing supply on exchanges is also an important factor backing Bitcoin’s rally.

Bull markets are particularly driven by euphoria, fear of missing out (FOMO) and speculative trading from retail investors. One of the ways to determine this is by analyzing retail market sentiment.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-currently-in-middle-of-the-bull-run-grayscale-report


Bitcoin price reclaims $70K as Coinbase BTC supply hits 9-year low

On the supply side, Bitcoin reserves on Coinbase reached a nine-year low of 344,856 BTC on March 18, showing that investors have resumed accumulating BTC off exchanges.

The last time BTC reserves on Coinbase were at similar lows was in 2015

The total Bitcoin balance in accumulation addresses has also rebounded to over 3.2 million BTC, nearing a record high, according to Glassnode’s chart.

In this case, accumulation addresses are those with over 10 BTC and no outgoing transactions or ties to centralized exchanges and mining firms.

Further showcasing the growing accumulation pattern, Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses hit a new all-time high of 25,300 BTC on March 22.

This suggests that big investors are likely betting on more upside after the recent 15%–20% drawdown from the all-time high of around $74,000.

In total, Bitcoin reserves on all exchanges hit a three-year low of 1.92 million BTC on March 25.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-accumulation-restarted-coinbase-btc-supply-9-year-low

Anything That Can Be Tokenize Will Be Tokenized

  • Over $1B in US Treasurys have now been tokenized on-chain，MAR 28, 2024
  • BlackRock begins asset tokenization with launch of digital liquidity fund，MAR 19, 2024
  • Sygnum bank to tokenize $50M of Matter Labs’ reserves for transparency，MAR 19, 2024


BlackRock begins asset tokenization with launch of digital liquidity fund

... “the next step forward” toward a single ledger, instantaneous settlement and ending illicit activities ...

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has filed a United States Securities and Exchange Commission Form D for the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund. 

This marks the launch of BlackRock’s first tokenized asset fund.

According to the filing, BlackRock created the fund in 2023 but has yet to launch it. 

Form D is used to obtain various exemptions. 

BlackRock indicated that it is seeking an exemption under the Investment Company Act Section 3(c), which exempts it from certain SEC regulations. 

The fund was created under the jurisdiction of the British Virgin Islands.

The fund will have a $100,000 minimum investment and be offered by Securitize, a U.S. digital assets securities firm, which will also conduct the sale of the tokens. 

The form shows $525,000 in sales commissions and indicates the size of the fund as “indefinite.” 

The form was signed on March 14.

The fund will be tokenized on the Ethereum blockchain with an ERC-20 token called BUIDL, which currently has one holder and a $0 on-chain market capitalization, according to Etherscan. 

That website also indicated that the fund received a transfer of $100 million on March 4.

“We believe the next step going forward will be the tokenization of financial assets, and that means every stock, every bond […] will be on one general ledger. Every investor, you and I, will have our own number, our own identification. We could rid ourselves of all issues around illicit activities about bonds and stocks and digital by having a tokenization. ” ~ BlackRock CEO, Larry Fink

About Securitize

Securitize is registered as a stock transfer agent and alternative trading system with the SEC. 

It has tokenized assets for asset manager KKR and Spanish real estate investment trust Mancipi, as well as formed a partnership with SBI Digital Markets in Singapore and bought cryptocurrency fund manager Onramp Invest, which had over $40 billion in assets under management.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-begins-asset-tokenization-launch-digital-liquidity-fund


Sygnum bank to tokenize $50M of Matter Labs’ reserves for transparency

Swiss-based global digital asset banking group Sygnum will invest $50 million in the Fidelity Institutional Liquidity Fund on behalf of its client Matter Labs. 

Those funds will be tokenized as the first step in Matter Labs’ long-term strategy to move all of its treasury reserves on-chain with institutional custodians.

The funds will be tokenized onto the Ethereum-based zkSync layer-2 blockchain, which Matter Labs curates. 

The tokenized funds will represent part of Matter Labs’ holdings in the Fidelity Institutional Liquidity Fund, an open-ended $6.3-billion umbrella for money-market funds that is domiciled in Ireland.

The funds are intended to provide transparency for Matter Labs’ proof of reserves.

"Moving USD 50m of our treasury reserves onto the zkSync blockchain showcases its institutional-grade security as well as our commitment to transparency.” ~ Matter Labs senior vice president of business and operations Marco Cora 

This is the first time Sygnum has tokenized traditional securities.

The zkSync blockchain was founded in 2018 to provide scalability to Ethereum DApps. Its public mainnet was launched in April 2023 after receiving $200 million in Series C funding in November 2022. It reached a high of $870 million in total value locked (TVL) on March 10 and had $715 million TVL on March 19, according to L2BEAT.

Sygnum claimed to be the first bank to tokenize its own assets in 2020. It began offering its clients access to cryptocurrency staking the same year, beginning with Internet Computer and Tezos, adding Ether the following year and Cardano in 2022.

The Sygnum Singapore subsidiary of the bank received a Major Payment Institution license in October 2023, allowing it to offer crypto brokerage services to accredited investors and institutions. Sygnum does not accept United States clients.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/sygnum-bank-tokenize-50-m-matter-labs-reserves-transparency


Over $1B in US Treasurys have now been tokenized on-chain

More than $1 billion worth of United States Treasurys now exist across Ethereum, Polygon, Solana, and other blockchains, helped in part by the recent launch of the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund.

BlackRock’s product, tickered “BUIDL,” was launched on Ethereum on March 20 and now boasts a market cap of $244.8 million. 

According to Etherscan, four transactions to the fund totaling $95 million over the week added a boost to the fund, making it the second largest tokenized government securities fund. 

BUIDL now only trails Franklin Templeton’s 11-month-old Franklin OnChain U.S. Government Money Fund (FOBXX), which has $360.2 million in U.S. Treasurys

The dashboard shows that $1.08 billion in U.S. Treasurys have now been tokenized across 17 products.

The most recent $79.3 million deposit to BlackRock’s fund was made by real-world asset tokenization firm Ondo Finance, which will allow instant settlements for its own U.S. Treasury-backed token, OUSG. The firm made a total of $95 million in deposits across four transactions, according to Etherscan.

BUIDL’s price is pegged 1:1 with the United States dollar and pays daily accrued dividends directly to investors each month. 

It was launched on Ethereum via the Securitize protocol.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink recently voiced that capital markets could be made more efficient by blockchain tokenization, which Boston Consulting Group estimates will become a *$16 trillion market by 2030*.

Ethereum also accounts for $700 million of all real-world assets (RWA) tokenized on-chain.

WisdomTree another large asset management firm tokenizing RWAs, while *Ondo Finance, Backed Finance, Matrixdock, Maple Finance and Swarm are among the blockchain-native firms operating in the space*.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-treasurys-tokenized-on-chain-hit-1-billion




2024-03-15

Long Term Value Investing & DCA

Volatility is good for traders.

Long term value investors keep calm.

 

1 Day

1 Week





1 Month



6 Months


1 Year



All Time




In A View






Bitcoin is up 1,800% 4 years after the 2020 COVID-19 BTC price crash

From bottom buys to stimulus checks, Bitcoin has richly rewarded those who used the events during the COVID-19 pandemic to increase BTC exposure.

Bitcoin (BTC) is up nearly 2,000% versus its COVID-19 lows on the fourth anniversary of its crash to $3,600.

On March 12, 2018, BTC price action began a plunge to levels never seen again as risk assets dived worldwide.

Beginning March 12 at $7,960, BTC/USD finished at $4,830, going on to bottom at $3,860 the following day.

Its comeback was arguably just as impressive — just one-and-a-half months later, $10,000 had reappeared.

“Everyone who bought the dip is up 1,700% since,” 

Those who decided to go all in on that day are not the only COVID-19 success stories when it comes to diversifying into BTC.

United States citizens who used their first stimulus check, worth $1,200 and delivered in April 2020, to buy Bitcoin are now sitting on $12,930, per data from monitoring resource BitcoinStimulus.

A 100% stimulus deployment, originally worth $3,200, is now worth 400% more.

Bitcoin began “paradigm shift” in March 2020

“That day, the paradigm shift from tech stock to freedom money began in earnest.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-up-1-800-after-2020-covid-19-btc-price-crash


2024-03-13

Bitcoin's Rally Q1 2024


  • Bitcoin’s ‘up only’ rally creating around 1.5K crypto millionaires daily — Data
  • Top Bitcoin traders enter leveraged longs near all-time high — $80,000 ahead?
  • Will the Bitcoin halving bring more institutional investors into crypto?
  • Bitcoin price nails new $73.6K all-time high as ETFs eat away at supply
  • Is Bitcoin due for a correction with 5 weeks till the halving?


Bitcoin’s ‘up only’ rally creating around 1.5K crypto millionaires daily — Data

STOP selling your Bitcoin to the ETFs!

... the daily inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs hit a record $1 billion of net inflows on March 12

BTC’s latest rally, backed by U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, is creating about 1,500 millionaire wallets on a daily basis. 

This highlights the growing wealth accumulation in the cryptocurrency sector.

However, this is a significantly lower number than those created during the 2021 bull run, when “more than four thousand wallets were reaching the million-dollar mark daily, and more than two thousand wallets were reaching $10M.

This time around, whales could be taking a more cautious approach, waiting to see if the gains have legs before investing.

 ... steady growth in the overall number of Bitcoin addresses holding significant wealth, underscoring increasing adoption and acceptance of Bitcoin as a store of value and investment asset.

BTC Price Targets

According to Standard Chartered, BTC price might surpass $100,000 by the end of 2024.

Hedge fund SkyBridge predicts a price of $170,000 by April 2025.

Fundstrat projects BTC to range between $116,000 and $137,000 by the end of the year. 

Investment management firm VanEck maintains its medium-term target at $350,000.

Independent analyst Ted Talks Macro noted that funds were flowing into the Bitcoin market “like never before,” saying that the pioneer cryptocurrency was on its way to $100,000.

---------------------------------------

Fund inflows like we have never seen before.

It makes 2020 look small... price will continue to catch up over the coming months.

The steady grind to 100k is underway #BTC 

Historically, when these flows peak, theres 2-3 months to GTFO of the market.

---------------------------------------

* GTFO - Get The Fuck Out


https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-up-only-rally-creating-around-1500-crypto-millionaires-daily-data



Top Bitcoin traders enter leveraged longs near all-time high — $80,000 ahead?

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $73,650 on March 13, marking a 44% gain in 16 days.

The surge reflects the increasing demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in the United States, which saw a record $1 billion in net inflows on March 12. 

... whether Bitcoin’s current bull run has the potential to surpass $80,000 hinges on the adoption of spot ETF instruments as a “store of value” and a potential shift in Bitcoin’s risk assessment. 

Before 2024, Bitcoin was not easily accessible to the majority of mutual funds and wealth managers. Additionally, regulatory uncertainty and its classification as a commodity were major concerns, but this changed after the approval of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan. 11.

While there's no guarantee Bitcoin will surpass $80,000 in the near term, BTC derivatives metrics indicate confidence, as traders are pricing similar risks for unexpected upward and downward moves.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-top-traders-enter-leverage-longs-near-all-time-high-80k-ahead


Will the Bitcoin halving bring more institutional investors into crypto?

“Institutions are still learning about this asset class, but understanding the monetary policy of Bitcoin will only drive more interest,” Dante Cook, Swan Bitcoin’s head of business.

The halving is an important demonstration that “Bitcoin security can continue despite a lower ‘security budget,’” Ethan Vera, chief operating officer at Luxor Technology Corporation

Investors have clearly embraced the spot market Bitcoin ETFs — as seen by the net inflows — and further regulatory clarity will help to drive industry adoption and investor base

A continued road to adoption

“What is different today from historical halvings are the ETFs, which have dramatically changed the Bitcoin ecosystem,” Clark Swanson, entrepreneur and former CEO of Bitcoin mining firm Blockcap

MicroStrategy recently rebranded itself as a Bitcoin development company, while the new ETFs “are capital-inefficient in the sense that the BTC just sits there. 

Investors may prefer Michael Saylor’s more active management strategy versus the ETFs.

Many miners see the writing on the wall — lower and lower block rewards — and are looking more at supplemental revenue opportunities. 

“Transaction fees on the Bitcoin network are crucial for miners long term,” said Vera, “and we are seeing many start investing time and capital into developing the ecosystem of applications being built on Bitcoin.”

“It is the finite supply and the halving of Bitcoin, which are characteristics that help make Bitcoin the hardest money ever created.” ~ Clark Swanson

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-institutional-investors-crypto-adoption

 

Bitcoin price nails new $73.6K all-time high as ETFs eat away at supply



The steady grind to 100k is underway.

The ETFs themselves fetched a record $1 billion of net inflows on March 12, final data confirms, with BlackRock’s product, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, enjoying the lion’s share.

“A record 14,706 BTC inflow on 12 March 2024,”

That amount alone represents a considerable portion of the newly-mined supply in 2024, totaling approximately 65,500 BTC.

The two largest ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity Investments held in excess of 330,000 BTC as of March 13 — five times what miners added.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-new-73-6-k-all-time-high-etfs-eat


Is Bitcoin due for a correction with 5 weeks till the halving?

“We estimated $10Bn inflows for 2024 and another $60Bn for 2025. In the last 40 trading days since ETF launch on Jan 10, Bitcoin ETF inflows have crossed $9.5Bn already.”

“At this run rate, Bitcoin ETFs would surpass our 2025 inflow estimates within 166 trading days for [the] rest of 2024,”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-correction-5-weeks-halving


2024-03-12

BTC Supply Shock (ETF & ETN)

  • London Stock Exchange to launch crypto ETNs on May 28, MAR 25, 2024
  • Bitcoin has 6 months until ETF ‘liquidity crisis’ — New analysis, MAR 12, 2024

Bitcoin has 6 months until ETF ‘liquidity crisis’ — New analysis

Bitcoin ETF - Most Successful ETF Launch in History

Now holding nearly $30 billion, United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become the most successful ETF launch in history.

“Bears can’t win this game until spot Bitcoin ETF inflow stops.”

ETFs alone put away more than 30,000 BTC last week, and with 3 million BTC in exchange and miner wallets, the odds of a supply-induced price shock become clear.


Limited Sell-side Liquidity and Thin Orderbook

“Last week, spot ETFs saw netflows of +30K BTC. Known entities like exchanges and miners hold around 3M BTC, including 1.5M BTC by US entities.” 

“At this rate, we’ll see a sell-side liquidity crisis within 6 months.”

When the tipping point from ETF demand comes, Ki forecasts the BTC price impact may be beyond market expectations.

“Once a sell-side liquidity crisis happens, its next cyclical top may exceed our expectations due to limited sell-side liquidity and thin orderbook,” 

Accumulation Addresses

an ongoing broad uptrend in BTC held by so-called “accumulation addresses” — wallets with only inbound transactions — with this still needing to double before the “crisis” sets in.



Full article: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-6-months-etf-liquidity-crisis-analysis


London Stock Exchange to launch crypto ETNs on May 28


To be approved, crypto ETNs must be 

physically backed, non-leveraged, have a reliable value of the underlying market price, and can only be denominated in Bitcoin or Ether. 

The underlying assets must be held in cold storage by an Anti-Money Laundering licensed custodian in the United Kingdom, European Union or United States.

Issuers can submit up to three different currency lines for the ETNs. 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/london-stock-exchange-launch-crypto-etns-may-28


2024-03-11

AI Designer and Bitcoin Bull

 An interesting finding and nice output.








Bitcoin - The Journey (Trillion Dollar Asset Class)

 

Bitcoin's Super Cycle


We "were" There



10



9


8



Bullish - Enter The Dragon

 农历二月二，龙抬头。




  • BTC price blasts through $70K — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
  • Bitcoin Halving: What’s different this time around?
  • Bitcoin buying advised as US enters the ‘looting-the-treasury phase’
  • Large corporations, major wirehouses gearing up to buy Bitcoin: Bitwise



BTC price blasts through $70K — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

potential BTC price volatility catalysts to come.

Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high before its next halving — a unique event in its history.

Bitcoin's most convicted holders are still holding at unrealized profit levels that usually occur well before the cycle peak.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-blasts-through-70k-5-things-bitcoin-this-week


Bitcoin Halving: What’s different this time around?

Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamic will be even more favorable than previous halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020 — thanks to the recent launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.

This halving event will occur at block 840,000 — expected to take place on April 20 — which will see mining rewards reduced from 6.25 BTC ($418,800) to 3.125 BTC ($209,400).

Spot Bitcoin ETF issuers are taking in 2,450 BTC each day while only 900 BTC are being mined.

“This number will fall to 450 BTC post-halving in late April [where the ETFs will be] sweeping up BTC at a rate five times higher than BTC's post-halving supply growth. This huge imbalance between supply and demand will lead to a continuous, but volatile, upward grind of the BTC price.”

How can this supply-demand imbalance not lead to a massive, continuous bitcoin price increase?

This will multiply Bitcoin’s demand at a time when the halving will reduce Bitcoin’s supply.

Bitcoin’s hashrate is five times higher than it was at the last halving.

“It now requires five times more computing power and associated electricity supply, electrical infrastructure, and mining hardware to attack the network.”

The network was already tremendously secure at the time of the 2020 halving, but now it is basically impenetrable

This geographic decentralization is continuing as miners migrate to Africa and Latin America to take advantage of cheaper electricity prices.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-different-this-time


Bitcoin buying advised as US enters the ‘looting-the-treasury phase’

“We’re in the looting-the-treasury phase of imperial collapse,” ~ entrepreneur and angel investor Balaji Srinivasan, the former Coinbase chief technology officer 

as financial reckoning approaches, the “ravenous state” may consider confiscating private assets.

a handful of examples, such as the seizing of assets from protesting Canadian truckers, freezing Russian assets and the “weaponization of Delaware against Elon [Musk] and New York against [Donald] Trump.”

“Fortunately, we have Bitcoin, which isn’t dependent on the state and can’t easily be seized.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-buying-advised-us-enters-looting-the-treasury-phase


Large corporations, major wirehouses gearing up to buy Bitcoin: Bitwise

On March 8, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF surpassed business intelligence firm MicroStrategy in terms of total Bitcoin held, touting 197,943 BTC on its balance sheet, worth over $13.5 billion at current prices.

Institutions representing “trillions of dollars in assets” are preparing to buy into spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the end of June, said crypto-native asset manager Bitwise.

In a March 9 investment memo sent out to investors, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said Bitwise was involved in “serious due diligence” discussions with large corporations, major wirehouses and institutional consultants looking to increase their exposure to Bitcoin in the coming months.

“Just as important as who is buying today is who will be buying tomorrow,” ~ Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan

https://cointelegraph.com/news/large-corporations-wirehouses-prepare-bitcoin-etf-bitwise

 

... no major wirehouse — names such as Morgan Stanley, Merryl Lynch or Bank of America — has yet joined the institutional push. 

 https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bull-cathie-wood-ark-invest-btc-price-target-1m




2024-03-09

Bitcoin Notes

Bitcoin Market Cap Info

 


Bitcoin market cap as a follow-up log to the article Bitcoin, Towards Becoming World's Most Valuable Asset Class?

Keywords

Institutional Demand

Price Discovery
Accelerate Hyperbitcoinization
Gated Access Benefits

Risk tolerance
Financial goals

Fact

Spot Bitcoin ETF trading volume peaked at $5.5 billion in total on March 4, making it the second-highest volume day since the products launched. 

The high trading volume and institutional demand mean spot Bitcoin ETFs, exchange-traded products and trackers now handle around 1 million BTC — roughly 5.13% of the total BTC circulating supply. 

Of that 1 million BTC, nearly 83% is managed by U.S.-based spot and futures ETFs.

Bitcoin Mining

In 2023, Core Scientific became the largest publicly listed crypto mining company in North America after mining 19,274 BTC, worth $812 million. 

The miner recently emerged from bankruptcy under Chapter 11 in the United States after a 13-month restructuring process to resolve $400 million in debt caused by declining BTC prices, rising energy costs, and debt tied to the bankrupt Celsius Network.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/core-scientific-100-million-deal-coreweave-miners-diversify-cash-streams



2024-03-04

BTC Halving and ATH

 BTC is technically superior to gold, real estate and the S&P 500.

While Bitcoin’s pre-halving rallies are historically profitable for investors, analysts expect the biggest gains to come after the halving, with some eyeing $130,000 to $180,000 by the end of 2025.

150-400 days after the halving tends to be the sweet spot where the compounding effects of subdued miner selling pressure impact BTC positively directionally.

The pre-Halving leading up to the actual Halving event is a great time to realize gains. The pre-Halving rally turns investor sentiment into a new bull cycle but timing the market to know when to get out at the top is extremely challenging.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/is-the-bitcoin-halving-the-right-time-to-invest-in-btc

Connecting The Dots - BTC in Perspective

It’s impossible to predict the price of BTC going forward, but by taking a snapshot of where it is today as it hovers around its previous all-time high, the total global impact of Bitcoin can be put into perspective.

1. 5,000 BTC used to get you a pizza — now it’s worth more than some countries.

2. There was a time when 10,000 BTC would get you a couple of pizzas. Today, a single Bitcoin would buy nearly 1,000 shares in Papa John’s, the fourth-largest pizza chain by market value

3.  Bitcoin’s (BTC) current pricing at $68,492 comes with a total market value of $1.31 trillion, is about a billion dollars more than all the Swiss francs in circulation. 

4. In fact, if Bitcoin were a fiat currency, it would be the 13th-largest in the world by market capitalization. This means there are only 12 fiat currencies with enough circulation to buy all the Bitcoin currency available.

5. At its current market value, a hodler with 10,000 BTC in their portfolio would have around $666.4 million and, technically, more global purchasing power than 97 countries.

6. Taking things a step further, if Bitcoin were to hit $100,000 per coin, based on current rankings, it would likely wind up somewhere between seventh and eighth on the list of most valuable fiat currencies by market cap. This would put it between the Indian rupee and the Canadian dollar.

7. At a million dollars a coin, Bitcoin would have a market cap of somewhere slightly below $21 trillion. At this hypothetical threshold, BTC would have a larger cap than any other fiat currency, except for the yuan and U.S. dollar.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/how-much-bitcoin-btc-could-buy-all-fiat-currency

Bitcoin and Asset Tokenization

 “The Bitcoin ETF is just an initial offering that allows the global financial system to have basic investment rails and payment rails toward Bitcoin within structures that they find comfortable for them.

The next stage is asset tokenization where banks see all these inflows into ETFs and then they make assets to compete with the ETFs or to get some of that capital.” ~ Sergey Nazarov, Chainlink Co-founder

Glassnode puts the total BTC assets available on the major trading platform it monitors at 2,286,347 BTC ($142.5 billion) as of March 2, 2024.

This is the lowest amount since March 2018, when BTC/USD traded at just $8,000.


  • AI, ETFs will power a decade-long ‘gold rush’ for Bitcoin: Michael Saylor
  • First gold ETF took 2 years to hit $10B, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF did it in 2 months


AI, ETFs will power a decade-long ‘gold rush’ for Bitcoin: Michael Saylor

1. “High growth institutional adoption" - Institutions will compete to capture as much of Bitcoin’s ever-decreasing supply until the end of 2034 as 99% of Bitcoin will have been mined by then.

2. The spot Bitcoin ETF’s are currently only serving as a “distribution channel” to 10-20% of those interested at the moment, but sees this rising upward to 100% once banks and institutional wirehouses start facilitating Bitcoin trades.

3. “When they can buy via their bank, their institutional wirehouse, their prime broker, they will make a $50 million decision in one hour.”

4. “You’re going to see resistance drop.”

5. “There will be a day where Bitcoin blasts past gold [and] trade more than the S&P index ETFs.”

6. “If you want to actually watermark, timestamp, cryptographically sign messages and documents and content, you’re going to need Bitcoin to do that as a system of truth.”

7. “If you want to create an AI version of yourself and have it live on the internet forever, you better give it some Bitcoin. So I think there's going to be an interesting demand function there.”

8. There could also be more demand for Bitcoin as nation-states start embracing BTC. Embracing Bitcoin has been shown to create more financial hubs, which, in turn, drives capital into these countries over the long term.

9. It’s just better to get in front of that and just embrace it.

10. We're going to see new frictions and [then the] overcoming [of] frictions because the tool itself is so powerful that it just gives so many ways to route around problems when they emerge.


#Bitcoin #ETF #AI

https://cointelegraph.com/news/decade-long-gold-rush-bitcoin-michael-saylor


Image: Money Flow - Native Digital Gold* (Bitcoin) vs Physical Gold

* NOT digitized version of physical gold, but programmable money with ultimate scarcity proven and verifiable by math and logic.


First gold ETF took 2 years to hit $10B, this Bitcoin ETF did it in 2 months

“Gold's pain is Bitcoin ETFs' gain in the store of value smackdown.” ~ Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas

"Bitcoin ETF inflows have absolutely blown gold’s out of the water. Not even close, utterly dwarfed, decimated,” ~ Reflexivity Research co-founder Will Clemente 

As of March 1, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF reached $10 billion in AUM — around 39 trading days since launch.

On the other hand, the United States’ first gold ETF — SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) — took more than two years to do the same following its launch in 2004.

Spot gold prices returned to near-peak levels of $2,081 per ounce on March 3, however, the precious yellow metal has only gained 1% since the beginning of the year. 

Comparatively, Bitcoin prices have surged 50% over the same period.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-bitcoin-etf-10-billion-aum-beating-first-gold-spdr



2024-03-02

BTC and Censorship (Filtering?) At Mining Level

... top two mining pools, Foundry USA and AntPool

higher operating costs and outdated setups will go offline. This will further centralize hash rate, with large-scale mining pools operating with significantly lower marginal cost per hash rate — thus intensifying centralization concerns.

The top two mining pools, AntPool and Foundry USA, are both regulatory compliant and require all miners to fulfill Know Your Customer obligations — ostensibly placing control in the hands of U.S. regulators.

The argument of whether Bitcoin centralization will lead to censorship may be a moot point.

In November 2023, Bitcoin developer 0xB10C reported on a number of transactions that may have been filtered out of blocks by mining pools. The suspect blocks all contained addresses sanctioned by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

From six candidate blocks, 0xB10C identified four blocks believed to omit OFAC-sanctioned addresses.

All four transactions were ignored by the F2Pool mining block. 0xB10C ultimately said, “These four missing sanctioned transactions lead to the conclusion that F2Pool is currently filtering transactions.”

That opinion was vindicated in short order as F2Pool confirmed that it had filtered transactions. Following community pushback, it then announced it would reverse the decision “for now.”

It’s worth remembering that even if one mining pool filters out a transaction, that does not stop the transaction from being processed, but it does potentially result in that transaction taking longer to process. 

The more mining pools that filter it, the longer the potential delay. 

There are many ifs and buts when dealing with the issue of hashing power centralization

Bitcoin maximalists’ reluctance to protocol changes.

a few additional bumps in the road for miners, the only realistic choice will be to ride it out.


https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-btc-mining-centralization

https://mempool.space/



2024-03-01

Bitcoin is The Exit Strategy

 #NFA #DYOR

Simple math. Simple logic.


1️⃣ BTC Demand (Institutional, retail yet to come in as at 27th Feb 2024)

Bitcoin is now only 20% down from its all-time high of nearly $69,000.

Currently, a total of 900 new BTC is added to the daily supply by miners. 

However, spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing net inflows of nearly 8,000–9,000 BTC on each trading day.


2️⃣ BTC Supply (Upstream Mining)

Riot’s cost to mine Bitcoin for 2023, net of power credits allocated to self-mining, averaged $7,539 per Bitcoin versus $11,225 in 2022, a decrease of 33% year-over-year.

Gold mining vs BTC mining

Gold mining - very heavy investment with unknown output

BTC mining - heavy investment but calculated risk is possible (as shown above real world case study), as everything if pre-fixed, ultimate scarcity with mining algorithm programmed and immutable to changes.


3️⃣ BTC Usage (Midstream Opportunities)

- Store of value

- Unit of accounting

- Medium of Exchange

In short, BTC is programmable money that has endless possibilities. 


Bitcoin is the exit strategy

订阅： 博文 (Atom)