How Tze 浩知

Viral communications seems to some to be a bit of a newfangled, half-baked idea, of interest only to teenagers, tech nerds and obnoxious green-screen comedians. But the science of crowd psychology is hardly a new idea at all. In fact, it's quite old and well documented. Heck, I'm not even the first guy to think this stuff has strong business implications and applications. Just last week, I was browsing through an article out of the Harvard Business Review on Ernest Dichter's work back in the sixties on crowd motivation. Dr. Evil Dichter is the supposedly "evil genius" who brought Freudian psychology to Madison Avenue on a silver platter. He is credited with inventing focus groups and such. He coined "put a tiger in your tank" for Esso. And when he determined young girls wanted something sexy in the dollhouse he created Barbie for Mattel. Dichter determined there are four things that motivate a body to tell other folks about something. He was t...

如果一场革命摧毁了一个政府，但是构建这个政府的指导思想的系统性方式仍然完好无损地保留下来，那么这些方式将会重建自身（有关形态将重复）... 对于系统的谈论是如此之多，但是对其理解又是如此之少。这一切的原因，就在于 我们的思考方式界定了我们的世界。 诸如亚里士多德和孔子这样的大师，他们所教授的内容并非某一特定科目，而是包括人类和自然在内的宽广思想。然而，今天的学生却正日益被培养为一群特定领域的专家。 由于我们是所谓的专家，所以思维愈加狭隘和偏颇。我们使用了大量有关我们所生活的世界的模型，事实却是这些模型建立在许多有失偏颇的假设下。(专业人士思考比较狭窄，采用世界的模式，许多假设可能不确实） 在经济学中，最基础的假设是“其他条件都相同的情况下”，而现实往往截然相反。 在错误的假设前提下，理论也必将是错误的。 有关宏观经济的大量理论是不成立的，宏观经济出错也就难以避免。 ---------------------- 反馈环路意味着并不存在简单的线性因果关系（尽管这种简单因果关系存在于大多数经济学模型中），因为在环路中，A导致B，B又引发了A的变化，或者创造出了C。 在《易经》中，这被称之为“一生二，二生三，三生万物”。这种复杂性正是来源于这些非常简单的功能或者过程的逐步演进。 参： 有形无形 ---------------------- 回馈反应的时滞一旦变化，系统便可能在稳定状态或非稳定状态之间摇摆。现今，市场交易速度越来越快，市场变得越来越动荡，我们应该不以为奇了吧？ 换句话说，危机之所以发生，是因为资源有限，而我们消费得太多太快。我们现在也知道，货币和金融衍生品的增速远远高于实体经济活动的发展速度。通胀不是顺其自然就来了吗？ ---------------------- 人类贪婪的本性和有限知识（经济学家称之为有限理性）导致了集体行动的陷阱或者说公地的悲剧。出于自利目的，每个人都竭力消费，地球母亲委实难堪重负。 虽然系统性思考不能解决所有问题，却能帮我们找到如何防止集体行动陷阱的方法。 在致力于避免集体行动陷阱的改革中，我们首先应该找到整个系统的关键支点，在这些关键支点能够牵一发而动全身。我们需要一种大智慧，减缓我们对地球母亲的掠夺。 源自：http://ucwap.caing.com/2011-05-05/1002...

Behavioral economist Dan Ariely, the author of Predictably Irrational, uses classic visual illusions and his own counterintuitive (and sometimes shocking) research findings to show how we're not as rational as we think when we make decisions. Tags: Dan Ariely TEDTalks TED talks EG predictably irrational behavioral economics choice research psychology TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes. Featured speakers have included Al Gore on climate change, Philippe Starck on design, Jill Bolte Taylor on observing her own stroke, Nicholas Negroponte on One Laptop per Child, Jane Goodall on chimpanzees, Bill Gates on malaria and mosquitoes, Pattie Maes on the "Sixth Sense" wearable tech, and "Lost" producer JJ Abrams on the allure of mystery. TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design, and TEDTalks cover these ...