2011-12-18

Disposable Income 可支配所得

物价上涨10%是如何让穷人越穷,富人越富

关键在于可支配所得:收入减必要支出后剩下的金额。

可支配所得大多用在储蓄或提升生活品质的事项,可支配所得越高的家庭,对于未来收入的贡献会越来越大,因为不论投资也好,教育也好,这类支出对于家庭未来的生活品质,财务状况都有所助益。

举例:

在物价上涨前,四个一般家庭收入、支出与可支配所得比率:


家庭收入 支出 可支配所得比率
40,000 38,000 5%
80,000 65,000 18.75%
200,000 100,000 50%
400,000 120,000 70%

当物价上涨那“区区 10%”后:


家庭收入 支出 可支配所得比率
40,000 41,800 -4.5%
80,000 71,500 10.6%
200,000 110,000 45%
400,000 132,000 67%

民生物资上涨,低收入家庭可支配所得会变成负数,这种家庭恐怕从此陷入贫穷的循环;本来可以收支平衡的家庭落入贫穷循环,而本来小康或中上的家庭则被逼需要缩衣节食以平衡收支。对于超高收入的家庭来讲就只不过少买一个 LV 包包。(烂船还有三分钉的最佳写照)

这种影响会造成什么后果?

黄国华,钞票的重量


While Wall Street hangs on every quarterly GDP report, monthly jobs number, and weekly jobless claims tally (all of which get revised significantly later on anyways), there are much bigger trends that reveal a lot more about the economy and the markets.

One of the most important is disposable income.

If 70% of the economy is consumer spending, you can bet how much money consumers have to spend is extremely important.

Consumers who have worked for six years naturally expect their disposable income to rise. They expect to be able to upgrade cars, vacations, houses, and still have more left over to save and invest after years of advancement and achievement.

Flatlining real disposable income doesn’t allow for any of that. And it’s one of the major reasons most people don’t feel any better off than they were five years ago: on average, they aren’t.

But all that could be starting to change in 2012...

Andrew Mickey, Wealth Daily