Stage 3: By mid-2009, pessimism deepens
Investors haven't reached the stage called capitulation, which will finally put the bottom in this bear.
In that stage, the last optimist throws in the towel. Everybody says he'll never buy a stock again.
Comparing certificate-of-deposit yields passes as cocktail-party conversation. The hot topic on financial-magazine covers is how little to put into your 401(k).
What would I do at this stage of my road map? Collect my dividends. Count myself lucky that I moved enough money into cash so that I don't face margin calls on my portfolio from either Wall Street or the accidents of life. Hang on to what I still own by remembering that I did my homework on these stocks early on, and the profit will indeed outweigh the pain.
Stage 5: Recovery after 2010
You know what this stage looks like: It's the economy and stock market of the 1990s before the dot-com boom turned into a bubble, or the economy and market before the housing boom turned into a global financial market bust.
The world is still aging, the developing world is still getting richer, the environment is still in crisis, the oil industry is still finding it harder and harder to find oil, and so on.
The question: How do we get through the near and intermediate terms with enough money and courage left to invest in that future?
